Overurbanizdrion: a Study on the Global Level

Abstract

Group of the world countries, and the group of developed countries, and the group of developing countries, for the years 1990 and 2013, it has been measured over-urbanization of these groups calculates the (Residuals) through four separate regressions: first, the regress of the gross national product per capita on the level of urbanization, which is the most common method, and secondly: the regress of proportion of the workforce in the industrial activities to the total employed on the level of urbanization, and thirdly: the regress of workforce in service activities percentage to total employees on the level of urbanization, and the Fourth : due to the high correlation between the gross national product per capita and the manufacturing and services sectors, it has been calculated residuals of these variables Simultaneously on the urbanization level, the residuals positive values indicate that the country over relatively urbanization, and vice versa for the residuals negative. Also, the study attempted to disclose of the relationship between these variables through the use of simple correlation coefficient. The study concluded the following results: First: Residuals positive values of the countries indicate that they too are relatively urbanization, and vice versa for negative residuals. Secondly, the measurement showed increase the number of developing countries that suffer from over-urbanization in 2013 compared to 1990 for the residuals analysis of all the regressions applied, and compared with the developed countries, the measurement have showed low number for leftover decline service employment rate and the decline of all the variables together, and the countries of the world , the measurement have showed also low number for leftover decline of industrial employment rate and the decline of all the variables combined. Thirdly, there is a significant correlation (positive) between urbanization and all of the economic growth and industrialization, and service employment ratio for developing countries, and this refers to the pursuit of developing countries towards urbanization, by contrast, the correlation between urbanization and all of the economic growth and industrialization in developed countries did not appear, the urbanization was characterized being a gradual and uneven with economic development and rising per capita incomes as it is subject to the trends and effects and rates of growth in tandem with the required needs of the labor. Finally, the study recommends doing a number of future studies to test the hypotheses put forward by the three theses theories of urbanization and its impact on over-urbanization as the dependent variable, which was measured in this study, particularly in developing countries.